The Democratic Party is gearing up for what is likely to be the most consequential day of its search to find a presidential nominee: the massive “Super Tuesday” contests.
When the results come in on Tuesday night (Wednesday AEDT) we will have a good idea of who the party’s nominee will be, or at least who the top two contenders are.
The field of candidates is expected to winnow significantly after Super Tuesday. Indeed, the intimidating prospect of having to compete across so many states at once has already led two candidates to suspend their campaigns in recent days: billionaire businessman Tom Steyer and former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg.
But while some candidates are dropping out, one big name is only just hopping in: former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg will be on the ballot for the first time on Super Tuesday.
A whopping 14 states, plus American Samoa, will hold their Democratic primaries on this single day, with 34 per cent of the total delegates to the party’s national convention up for grabs.
To put that in context, the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina awarded just 4 per cent of the total delegates combined.
If Bloomberg and Biden were to drop below that 15 per cent threshold in California, it would deliver a colossal victory for Sanders that could virtually guarantee him the nomination.
That means if you win big on Super Tuesday, you’re in the box seat to be the party’s nominee. If you bomb out, your campaign is almost certainly over.
The Super Tuesday states are extremely diverse in both racial and ideological terms, encompassing all facets of the Democratic coalition.
The reason so many states hold their primaries on the same day is because they want their voters to have a say early in the process.
Pete Buttigieg, the 38-year-old former mayor of South Bend Indiana told his campaign staff today he would drop out of the race after a poor showing in the South Carolina primary.
By the time Democrats in later states get to vote in their primaries, it’s often already clear who the party’s nominee will be.
Golden state
Super Tuesday has been a fixture of the primary calendar for three decades but it is far more significant this year for one reason: California.
The Golden State moved its primary forward by three months this year to give its voters more influence over the nominating process.
With 40 million residents, California is the country’s most populous state and sends the most delegates to the party’s convention.
The Californian electorate is younger, more progressive and more Hispanic than those found elsewhere. This makes it a strong state for Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
A poll released by Suffolk University on Sunday (Monday AEDT) showed Sanders on 35 per cent among likely Democratic primary voters, well ahead of Bloomberg on 16 per cent and former vice-president Joe Biden at 14 per cent.
The Democratic Party awards delegates on a proportional basis, meaning you don’t have to win the most votes in a state to pick up delegates there.
But crucially, you do have to win at least 15 per cent of the vote to gain any delegates.
That means if Bloomberg and Biden were to drop below that 15 per cent threshold, it would deliver a colossal victory for Sanders that could virtually guarantee him the nomination.
California allows voters to send in their ballots by mail as long as they are post-marked by Tuesday. That means it can take weeks until all the votes are counted and the final results are known.
Southern influence
Texas – the second most populous state in the country – will also hold its primary on Super Tuesday and send a big chunk of delegates to the convention. It has a more conservative flavour than California, but also has a lot of Hispanic and younger voters.
Polls also show Sanders leading there over Biden, but Barack Obama’s former deputy will be hoping to get a boost from his big victory in South Carolina.
He should also be in a good position in southern states like North Carolina and Alabama, where voters are more moderate and African Americans make up a sizeable share of primary voters.
Biden’s problem is that his campaign is short on cash, making it hard to compete across so many states at once (especially states with expensive advertising markets).
He has been vastly outspent by Bloomberg, who has been flooding the Super Tuesday states with advertising. But Bloomberg put in two underwhelming debate performances in recent weeks, calling into question his claim to be the most electable candidate in the race.
Biden’s best hope is that he emerges as the clear moderate alternative to Sanders, allowing him to take on the democratic socialist in a two-person race as the process continues towards the convention.
Home advantage
Significantly, the home states of three candidates – Sanders (Vermont), Elizabeth Warren (Massachussetts) and Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) – will hold their primaries on Super Tuesday.
Warren and Klobuchar have yet to finish above third in any state and are struggling to keep their campaigns afloat. If they don’t win on their home turf it will be interpreted as a clear message from voters that it’s time for them to drop out of the race.
Source: WA Today
